Cultures of transformation: An integrated framework for transformative action

The challenges posed by climate change have generated many initiatives that seek to implement societal transformations. In most cases, these focus on technology developments, adoption and diffusion but neglect the social and cultural dimensions of a transformation. Insights from systems and behavioural sciences can provide valuable guidance on these aspects, but the utility of this literature is limited by two factors. Firstly, the literature on the intersection between social transformation and psychological processes of behaviour change by individuals is limited. Secondly, the complex technical nature of much of the transition relevant literature limits its accessibility by stakeholders outside academia. We seek to address these challenges through the development of a transdisciplinary Transformation Process Framework for use as a ‘knowledge integration’ tool as part of a co-design process for transformative change. The Framework: (1) develops a systematic narrative of the transformational changes that need to be triggered at multiple scales (from individual to society), (2) generates a map to identify key variables, drivers, and blockers in a transformation process integrating different knowledge from fragmented disciplines; (3) serves as a tool to support the exploration of relevant academic (and other) literature to collate and utilise relevant knowledge. © 2022Suggestion H.P., A.H.S. and A.A.K was supported by the H2020 European Commission Project ‘PARIS REINFORCE’ under grant agreement no. 820846 . This work also originated in, and benefited from, discussions with multiple research and non-governmental organisations. We acknowledge and thank all involved in helping us develop and refine our ideas. We also thank two anonymous referees who provided valuable and insights comments that significantly helped in improving the original manuscript. We also grateful for the constructive and thoughtful comments provided by two anonymous referees

From integrated to integrative: Delivering on the paris agreement

In pursuit of the drastic transformations necessary for effectively responding to climate change, the Paris Agreement stresses the need to design and implement sustainable, robust, and socially acceptable policy pathways in a globally coordinated and cooperative manner. For decades, the scientific community has been carrying out quantitative modelling exercises in support of climate policy design, primarily by means of energy systems and integrated assessment modelling frameworks. Here, we describe in detail the context of a hitherto ineffective scientific contribution to policymaking, highlight the available means to formulate a new paradigm that overcomes existing and emerging challenges, and ultimately call for change. In particular, we argue that individual modelling exercises alone widen the gap between formal representation and real-life context in which decisions are taken, and investigate major criticisms to which formalised modelling frameworks are subject. We essentially highlight the importance of employing diverse modelling ensembles, placing the human factor at the core of all modelling processes, and enhancing the robustness of model-driven policy prescriptions through decision support systems. These altogether compose a truly integrative approach to supporting the design of effective climate policy and sustainable transitions and, therefore, strengthen the modelling-policymaking interface. © 2018 by the authors

Evaluating integrated impacts of low-emission transitions in the livestock sector

This paper provides the results of a combined qualitative and quantitative assessment of key impacts for two low-emission transition pathways for the Dutch livestock sector. These impacts or side-effects can be positive or negative. Both pathways were designed to meet a sector specific methane emission reduction target of 33 % in 2030 (relative to 2005). The qualitative assessment with stakeholders resulted in developing off-model quantifications to better reflect expected changes in system dynamics and development of more realistic transition pathways used for macro-econometric (E3ME) and atmospheric (TM5-FASST) modelling. We found that each low-emission transition pathway has a unique footprint of positive and negative impacts. This footprint is largely shaped by the combination of existing and new technologies, infrastructure used, and practices deployed. We consider the analysis and results relevant for climate policy and governance processes where there is a need to develop transition pathways that are optimised to meet different sustainable development goals. © 2019 The Author(s

Expert perceptions of game-changing innovations towards net zero

Current technological improvements are yet to put the world on track to net-zero, which will require the uptake of transformative low-carbon innovations to supplement mitigation efforts. However, the role of such innovations is not yet fully understood; some of these ‘miracles’ are considered indispensable to Paris Agreement-compliant mitigation, but their limitations, availability, and potential remain a source of debate. We evaluate such potentially game-changing innovations from the experts' perspective, aiming to support the design of realistic decarbonisation scenarios and better-informed net-zero policy strategies. In a worldwide survey, 260 climate and energy experts assessed transformative innovations against their mitigation potential, at-scale availability and/or widescale adoption, and risk of delayed diffusion. Hierarchical clustering and multi-criteria decision-making revealed differences in perceptions of core technological innovations, with next-generation energy storage, alternative building materials, iron-ore electrolysis, and hydrogen in steelmaking emerging as top priorities. Instead, technologies highly represented in well-below-2°C scenarios seemingly feature considerable and impactful delays, hinting at the need to re-evaluate their role in future pathways. Experts' assessments appear to converge more on the potential role of other disruptive innovations, including lifestyle shifts and alternative economic models, indicating the importance of scenarios including non-technological and demand-side innovations. To provide insights for expert elicitation processes, we finally note caveats related to the level of representativeness among the 260 engaged experts, the level of their expertise that may have varied across the examined innovations, and the potential for subjective interpretation to which the employed linguistic scales may be prone to

Beyond peak emission transfers: historical impacts of globalization and future impacts of climate policies on international emission transfers

Globalization of supply chains has resulted in rapid increases in emission transfers from the developing to the developed world. As outsourcing has risen, developed countries have been able to decarbonize domestically, at the expense of increased emissions in developing countries. However, the rapid improvement of carbon efficiency in developing regions together with the post-2008 deceleration in international trade raises the question of whether such embodied emission transfers have peaked. Here we update historical analysis, finding that emission transfers between OECD and non-OECD countries peaked in 2006, and have been declining since. The reversal is principally due to the reduction in the emissions intensity of traded goods, rather than the volume of trade. A more recent decline in embodied emissions transfers is also observed in trade between developing countries. We analyse whether these trends are likely to continue, by exploring a baseline and a Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) scenario with the Macro-ejconometric Energy-Environment-Economy Model (E3ME) model. The results suggest that absolute embodied emissions will plateau at current levels or slowly return to pre-2008- crisis levels, and differences between the NDC and baseline scenarios imply that NDC policies will not result in significant carbon leakage. However, the share of national footprint embodied in imports, at least for countries with ambitious decarbonization policies, will likely increase. This suggests that, despite the world-wide stabilization of emissions transfers, addressing emissions embodied in imports will become increasingly important for reducing carbon footprints. // Key policy insights: (1) Emissions embodied in imports have plateaued since 2006, and are unlikely to return to the peak of the mid-2000s. (2) For developed countries, as domestic decarbonization occurs, the share of emissions embodied in imports as a percentage of the total national carbon footprint will increase. (3) The Paris NDCs in themselves are unlikely to cause significant carbon leakage. (4) Climate policy will ideally focus on reducing both production and consumption emissions, through a variety of mechanisms, especially centred around international assistance

Beyond peak emission transfers: historical impacts of globalization and future impacts of climate policies on international emission transfers

Globalization of supply chains has resulted in rapid increases in emission transfers from the developing to the developed world. As outsourcing has risen, developed countries have been able to decarbonize domestically, at the expense of increased emissions in developing countries. However, the rapid improvement of carbon efficiency in developing regions together with the post-2008 deceleration in international trade raises the question of whether such embodied emission transfers have peaked. Here we update historical analysis, finding that emission transfers between OECD and non-OECD countries peaked in 2006, and have been declining since. The reversal is principally due to the reduction in the emissions intensity of traded goods, rather than the volume of trade. A more recent decline in embodied emissions transfers is also observed in trade between developing countries. We analyse whether these trends are likely to continue, by exploring a baseline and a Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) scenario with the Macro-econometric Energy-Environment-Economy Model (E3ME) model. The results suggest that absolute embodied emissions will plateau at current levels or slowly return to pre-2008- crisis levels, and differences between the NDC and baseline scenarios imply that NDC policies will not result in significant carbon leakage. However, the share of national footprint embodied in imports, at least for countries with ambitious decarbonization policies, will likely increase. This suggests that, despite the world-wide stabilization of emissions transfers, addressing emissions embodied in imports will become increasingly important for reducing carbon footprints.Industrial Ecolog

Challenges in the harmonisation of global integrated assessment models: a comprehensive methodology to reduce model response heterogeneity

Harmonisation sets the ground to a solid inter-comparison of integrated assessment models. A clear and transparent harmonisation process promotes a consistent interpretation of the modelling outcomes divergences and, reducing the model variance, is instrumental to the use of integrated assessment models to support policy decision-making. Despite its crucial role for climate economic policies, the definition of a comprehensive harmonisation methodology for integrated assessment modelling remains an open challenge for the scientific community. This paper proposes a framework for a harmonisation methodology with the definition of indispensable steps and recommendations to overcome stumbling blocks in order to reduce the variance of the outcomes which depends on controllable modelling assumptions. The harmonisation approach of the PARIS REINFORCE project is presented here to layout such a framework. A decomposition analysis of the harmonisation process is shown through 6 integrated assessment models (GCAM, ICES-XPS, MUSE, E3ME, GEMINI-E3, and TIAM). Results prove the potentials of the proposed framework to reduce the model variance and present a powerful diagnostic tool to feedback on the quality of the harmonisation itself

Where is the EU headed given its current climate policy? A stakeholder-driven model inter-comparison.

Recent calls to do climate policy research with, rather than for, stakeholders have been answered in non-modelling science. Notwithstanding progress in modelling literature, however, very little of the scenario space traces back to what stakeholders are ultimately concerned about. With a suite of eleven integrated assessment, energy system and sectoral models, we carry out a model inter-comparison for the EU, the scenario logic and research questions of which have been formulated based on stakeholders' concerns. The output of this process is a scenario framework exploring where the region is headed rather than how to achieve its goals, extrapolating its current policy efforts into the future. We find that Europe is currently on track to overperforming its pre-2020 40% target yet far from its newest ambition of 55% emissions cuts by 2030, as well as looking at a 1.0-2.35 GtCO2 emissions range in 2050. Aside from the importance of transport electrification, deployment levels of carbon capture and storage are found intertwined with deeper emissions cuts and with hydrogen diffusion, with most hydrogen produced post-2040 being blue. Finally, the multi-model exercise has highlighted benefits from deeper decarbonisation in terms of energy security and jobs, and moderate to high renewables-dominated investment needs

A multi-model analysis of long-term emissions and warming implications of current mitigation efforts

Most of the integrated assessment modelling literature focuses on cost-effective pathways towards given temperature goals. Conversely, using seven diverse integrated assessment models, we project global energy CO2 emissions trajectories on the basis of near-term mitigation efforts and two assumptions on how these efforts continue post-2030. Despite finding a wide range of emissions by 2050, nearly all the scenarios have median warming of less than 3 °C in 2100. However, the most optimistic scenario is still insufficient to limit global warming to 2 °C. We furthermore highlight key modelling choices inherent to projecting where emissions are headed. First, emissions are more sensitive to the choice of integrated assessment model than to the assumed mitigation effort, highlighting the importance of heterogeneous model intercomparisons. Differences across models reflect diversity in baseline assumptions and impacts of near-term mitigation efforts. Second, the common practice of using economy-wide carbon prices to represent policy exaggerates carbon capture and storage use compared with explicitly modelling policies